Thursday, August 2, 2012

Using Tech to Predict Winners in London Olympics 2012

The country destined to wind up on the top at the end in the London Olympics will not be crowned for quite a while, but virtual medal predictors claim they can have the whole thing identified already.

According for the USA Today's virtual medals table, China will turn out with highest medal total as of this summer's Olympic Games, while the U.S. will be second and go back home with the most gold. The paper is just one of many outlets using carefully created algorithms to look for the outcome with the Olympics before the events even begin.

There are a couple of different methods for predicting the final results of the Olympics, by using a combination of science to predict which countries will lead the rest. Algorithms take into consideration athletes' past performances leading up to the games to acquire a judge of where they're at, then best-estimate what their next performances will probably be like, depending on the principle that past behavior is the best indicator of future success. Once the facts are fed to the system, the pc does the rest of the work.

While different analysts' algorithms produce varying results, in total they've shown to be fairly accurate during the past. In 2008, the Dan Johnson model, named following the Colorado College professor by the same name, accurately predicted the U.S. would end up the winner as a whole medals which China tummy flatness, although in second. Now, four years later, analysts have had time to correct mistakes and technology has advanced even further. However, only time will tell if it's enough for professional predictions being more accurate than before.

In addition to professional outlets issuing pregame result cards, fans and other media will probably also be quick to create their predictions known hoping looking like geniuses when all is said and done. Social media sites like Facebook and Twitter almost appear designed for those who love to make their predictions known towards the public. But these guesses are far more likely fueled by bias and adoration for a particular team and country as opposed to scientific studies being conducted in national newspapers and so on college campuses.

Whether it does not take predictions of an fan on Twitter, an esteemed college professor or a newspaper while using the world's latest technology, the beauty from the Olympics is the fact that none of them will likely be 100 percent accurate.

The reports from USA Today is often a good guideline along with a nice tool to make use of when placing bets with friends, but millions worldwide will tune to the Games because no one truly knows what the final outcome will be. No statistic or computer can account for the human element, understanding that's why we watch the Games.


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